Home' Asian Aviation : AAV Sept 2010 Contents Andrzej Jeziorski
is year's Farnborough International Airshow was a
dramatic, upbeat contrast to the gloom of 2008, when the
global nancial crisis was beginning to take hold. With
passenger and cargo tra c gures consistently showing
a rebound in demand, Airbus and Boeing between them
notched up 290 rm aircra orders and more than 200
" e air transport recovery is well underway," said Teal
Group analyst Richard Aboula a -- not generally known
for seeing the world through rose-tinted spectacles. Airbus's
top salesman John Leahy -- habitually far more inclined to
optimism -- echoed that thought.
" e recession is de nitely over [and] airlines are ying full
again," Leahy said, a statement that seems solidly backed by
the pleasing tra c gures released in recent months by the
International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Nevertheless, there are good reasons to remain cautious.
Even as Farnborough's organisers hailed the industry's
"mood of strong optimism", the international press was
reporting fears of a 'double-dip' recession as unemployment
soars and massive debt holds back a real recovery. By the
end of July, Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a double-dip
recession to 25 percent, while Moody's Economy.com said
there was a one-in-three chance -- compared with a one-in-
ve probability earlier in the month.
IATA Director General and CEO Giovanni Bisignani
acknowledged the need for caution.
" e recovery in demand has been faster than anticipated.
But, as we look towards the end of the year, the pace of the
recovery will slow," he said. " e jobless economic recovery
is keeping consumer con dence fragile, particularly in
North America and Europe. This is affecting leisure
markets and cargo tra c."
Growth from now on will largely depend on consumer
spending, "which remains weak", Bisignani said.
But analysts point out that there are key regions of the
world where economies are in rude health, notwithstanding
the gloom in the US and Europe. China is growing at a
double-digit pace, while India, too, is cited by aircra
manufacturers as a likely key driver of demand for new
aircra over the next two decades. e Middle East is also
likely to experience continued strong demand for aircra .
Manufacturers were delighted by orders for 125 aircra
from the legendary founder of International Lease Finance
Corp, Steven Udvar-Hazy, who now heads Air Lease Corp
(ALC). Udvar-Hazy has always been known for his astute
understanding of the market and many will have found his
Aboula a, however, was not one of those people, expressing
reser vations that "about 85 percent" of the orders at
Farnborough came from aircra leasing companies. He
points out that orders from lessors retain a degree of
separation from actual travel demand -- and the fact that
the airlines themselves are not placing these orders suggests
they may still be wary of the macroeconomic environment.
" e disconnect between a booming air transport industry
and a shaky world economy might not last," Aboula a said.
Even so, Teal is not anticipating a downturn in deliveries
and forecasts healthy long-term growth. Still, the risk
remains and "irrational exuberance is not warranted". n
Defying 'double-dip' fears
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The next Asian Aerospace International Expo and
Congress, being held on 8-10 March 2011 in Hong Kong ,
will be a doubly special occasion for this publication as we
prepare -- together with show organiser Reed Exhibitions
-- to host the rst Aviation Awards Asia.
e goal is to create a truly Asia-focused event that aims
to recognise excellence and outstanding achievements in
the Asian commercial aviation industry. With aircra
manufacturers and analysts predicting that the Asia-Paci c
market will be a primary growth driver for aviation and
aerospace over the next two decades, the goal is to raise
the pro le of the key players in the market, rewarding
innovation, excellence, professionalism and best business
e awards will be presented against the background of
a show that, in 2009 -- even as the global slowdown took
hold -- attracted 12,616 attendees and 356 exhibitors
from 28 countries. e eyes of the global industry will
be focused on Hong Kong for the Expo, providing award
winners with a valuable platform from which to draw
the attention of peers, partners and customers to their
Awards will be handed out in six categories: Full-
Ser vice Airline ; Low-Cost Carrier; Business Aviation;
Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul; Technolog y &
Environment and Airport of the Year.
Entrants may nominate themselves under the following
conditions: they must show a measurable achievement
in the calendar year 2010; the achievement should have
had a positive impact on the Asian aviation industry; they
should demonstrate a superior standard of products and
ser vices; and they should have a proven track record in
shaping and leading the industry in their particular eld.
Entry is free of charge with the completion of an entry
pack, available on-line or by e-mail.
Entries will be accepted starting in September, with the
judges taking into account a range of factors, including :
impact on business performance, originality, e ect on
operational safety, customer ser vice and contribution to
aviation in the Asia-Paci c region.
Reed, Asian Aviation introduce industry awards
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