Home' Asian Aviation : AAV Sept 2010 Contents 22 AsianAviation | SEPTEMBER 2010
Manufacturers look to Asia
Three of the world's major aircraft manufacturers have released new, 20-year market forecasts. All agree
that Asia will be a key growth driver, writes Ian Goold.
Airframe manufacturers Boeing,
Bombardier and Embraer all agree
that the Asia-Paci c market will be
the primary driver for new-aircra
demand in the next two decades,
according to their latest forecasts.
Brazil's Embraer says the Asia-Pacific region,
including China, will account for more than a third of
global airline tra c within 20 years, while markets in
the Europe and North America will see their combined
share fall from last year's 57 percent to 44 percent.
China will lead growth in tra c, measured in revenue
passenger-kilometres (RPK), expanding at a rate of 7.3
percent per annum.
"Emerging market opportunities in China, India,
and other developing regions should provide a
powerful impetus to the global industry's recovery," says
Bombardier Aerospace's new 20-year forecast. "While
both business- and commercial-aircra markets were
a ected by the recession, [economic] indicators show
improvement and there are positive signs for the global
According to Boeing's market outlook, airline tra c
growth will accelerate in the short term, as world
economies start to recover from recession in the next
two or three years. Overall, airlines will need 30,900
new-build commercial aircra , including 740 freighters,
The US manufacturer predicts international
scheduled passenger tra c will grow by 5.3 percent per
year in the period, while Brazilian counterpart Embraer
is expecting a slightly lower 4.9 percent annual increase
(see Tables 1 and 2). With tra c having grown at
around 5 percent annually for the past three decades --
and expected to resume that rate from 2015 -- Boeing
Commercial Airplanes marketing Vice-President Randy
Tinseth attributes the slightly higher 5.3 percent rate to
last year's reduced tra c base caused by the recession.
Conditions 'improving, unstable'
Boeing analysts predict that new deliveries over the
next two decades will be worth US$3,600 billion, as
global economies recover. "Improving , yet still unstable
conditions," will be re ected in strong demand for
both new and replacement aircra . Carriers will focus
on "more ights [with] more-e cient, rather than
signi cantly larger, airplanes", the manufacturer says.
For aircra of the capacity of the Boeing 747 or
larger, the US company sees a US$220 billion market
for 720 aircra , mostly replacements for existing aircra .
Anticipated demand for 7,100 widebody and 21,160
narrowbody machines will be worth about US$1,630
billion and US$1,680 billion, respectively. A need for
1,920 regional jets, valued at US$60 billion, makes up
the balance of the 20-year requirement.
" e market is doing much better than last year, but
there are still challenges. Airline revenue and yields
are up, but fuel prices remain volatile," Tinseth says.
Demand will be driven by "economic growth from
regions with diverse airplane needs. e proliferation of
low-cost carriers, emerging markets such as China, India,
and South-East Asia, and continuing instability of fuel
prices" means that the single-aisle sector will dominate
Regionally, the Asia-Paci c displays "the most robust
market gains, with China leading the way", according to
the executive, who says a third of all tra c touches the
area. Tinseth suggests that continued strong growth will
mean that "almost 43 percent of  tra c will be to,
from, or within" the Asia-Paci c region. Local carriers
will be the largest widebody consumers, accounting for
40 percent of demand.
Fast-growing Middle East markets will remain
"very strong", with operators bene ting from aircra
performance, demographics, geography, and "well-
coordinated growth and investment plans". Europe
and North America will provide "substantial"
requirements for machines to replace old, less-e cient
designs. Worldwide, Tinseth sees demand as becoming
increasingly balanced, following "robust" growth in
e world's freighter eet is predicted to increase
from 1,750 to 2,980 aircra . Demand for 2,490 extra
machines will include some 740 new-build freighters,
valued at US$180 billion, with 1,750 passenger aircra
being converted for cargo use. Boeing sees requirements
for 520 new large freighters (over 80 tonnes payload)
and 210 medium cargo aircra (40-80 tonnes). Very
few new "standard-body" units (up to 45 tonnes) are
Cargo traffic growth
Cargo tra c will grow annually at an average 5.9 percent
during 2010-29, with an increase of "nearly 14 percent"
this year over 2009's depressed level. " e inclusion of
 high-tra c growth levels, following recession,
is driving our cargo forecast upward, [but industry]
strength and growth will continue to be driven by sound
fundamentals: speed and reliability, consumer product
innovation and global industrial interdependence,"
Analysts at Canada's Bombardier see absolute
Bombardier says India will absorb about 600 new aircraft
deliveries in the next two decades. Credit: Bombardier
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