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numbers of airliner deliveries remaining weighted
towards Europe and North America, but perceive a
move in overall regional shares.
" is shi highlights the growing role of emerging
aviation markets, particularly China," the manufacturer
says. "It is estimated that China's eet of 20- to 149-seat
commercial aircra will become the third largest, closely
behind Europe and the USA."
China is forecast to receive 18 percent of such
deliveries, with India taking 5 percent and growing to
make up 4 percent of the global eet, compared with
1 percent today. In contrast, Europe's eet share will
decline from the current 28 percent to 19 percent.
For the commercial-aviation market, the manufacturer
notes that there is a growing middle-class population
contributing to growth, with low-cost carriers (LCCs)
expanding to support increased demand for low-fare,
point-to-point service. As deregulation and developing
private operations stimulate this growth, the region
is expected to receive 1,640 aircra (or 13 percent of
demand) in the 20- to 149-seat sector during 2010-29.
Bombardier says India is a key driver of economic
growth in Asia, with its eet set to grow from about 120
aircra now to 650, as the country absorbs 600 deliveries
-- about 36 percent of the regional total in the period. Of
the regional total, some 700 deliveries (or 43 percent)
will be 60- to 99-seat machines, while 920 units (or 56
percent) will carry 100-149 passengers.
Meanwhile, China's growing economic power is
evident throughout its aviation industry, according
to the market forecast. "Manufacturing , repair and
supply organisations are well entrenched in China
[where] growth continues to progress in concert
with development of its aviation infrastructure,"
e prospect of the country's air-tra c management
system coming under non-military control, as
envisaged by the Civil Aviation Administration of
China (CAAC), will "likely improve access to Chinese
airspace and airports for commercial airlines".
Bombardier expects China's 20- to 149-seat eet to
number 2,550 aircra by 2029, making it the third-
largest a er North America and Europe -- up from
its current sixth place. With double-digit growth
in domestic capacity last year, there was a huge,
265 percent increase in the 60- to 99-seat sector.
Meanwhile, the manufacturer predicts delivery of
2,260 aircra in the 20- to 149-seat market in the
next 20 years, which would represent 18 percent of
High airline tra c growth drives China's eet
requirements for larger aircraft, with 62 percent
of delivered aircraft having capacity for 100-149
passengers, the manufacturer says.
Bombardier business aircra salesmen will also be
encouraged by their market analysts' view of 20-
year demand in the Asia-Paci c region. "Business
aviation penetration in the fastest-expanding
world economies, China and India in particular, is
accelerating ," the company says.
Following "exceptional" performance in the last
recession, China is expected to continue to lead
world growth, with Bombardier looking for ward to
fewer barriers in that market. "Restrictive airspace
access, high import taxes, a shortage of small
airports, and high operating costs are among the
factors which explain an installed base of [only] 100
business jets," the manufacturer says.
The manufacturer says China's "strong
commitment to build new infrastructure and recent
improvements to ight-planning regulation bring
hope that private aviation could blossom [there]
over the next ten years". Accordingly, the Chinese
business-jet eet is expected to grow at a rate of
20 percent annually in the period and to support
a 700-strong eet by 2019 as it absorbs some 600
With a eet of 125 aircra , India enjoys "relatively
low" business-jet penetration, says Bombardier,
predicting that sales will accelerate progressively in
response to economic growth and wealth creation.
e eet is expected to grow by some 13 percent
per year in the coming decade. Delivery of 325 new
machines is expected to expand the eet to 440
aircra by 2019.
"Currently, [the] sector is not living up to its full
potential due to a lack of aviation infrastructure,
stringent government regulations, long [import]
procedures, and strict bank regulations," according
to the manufacturer.
Looking more broadly across Asia and Oceania
including individual markets such as Indonesia, Japan,
Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and ailand,
Bombardier foresees 500 new-aircraft deliveries
during 2010-19, taking the eet to some 780 aircra
"despite hurdles such as the high handling costs across
the region's airports".Overall, the Bombardier market
forecast sees 20-year demand for 12,800 new airliners
worth US$612 billion in the 20- to 149-seat sector,
an increase of 400 units from last year's forecast.
Some 200 of the aircra will o er fewer than 60 seats,
while 6,700 will accommodate 100-plus passengers.
Bombardier analysts also predict a need for 26,000
business jets worth US$661 billion in the "light to
large" market segments in which it competes.
Embraer's forecast for small-jetliner deliveries during
the next two decades sees overall annual tra c growth
continuing at 4.9 percent, to reach some 2,700 billion
RPK, up 170 percent over last year's level of activity.
Growth in the Asia-Paci c, Latin America, Russia
and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
will average 6 percent per year. Tra c in Africa will
increase at about 5 percent, ahead of Europe and North
America's 3.5 percent growth rates.
Embraer forecasts that the world eet of 30- to
120-passenger jets will rise in number from 4,285 last
year to 7,780 in 2029, by which time about 21 percent
of current aircra (905 jets) will remain in operation.
e manufacturer foresees demand for 6,875 new
aircra , worth an estimated US$200 billion. Of these,
2,895 are planned for delivery during 2010-19, and the
remaining 3,980 units in the subsequent ten years.
Future requirements are split almost evenly between
aircra needed to support market growth and those
that will replace existing machines. Embraer estimates
that 51 percent of the total (or 3,495 units) will be
needed to provide extra capacity, while 49 percent
(3,380 units) will take the place of ageing aircra .
Some 1,100 such jets in scheduled ser vice are over 15
years old and will need to be replaced.
Fi y-seat regional-jets will continue to feed hubs
and to serve smaller communities in Europe and the
USA, while also supporting aviation development in
areas such as Africa, Mexico, Russia & the CIS, and
South America, says Embraer. Aircra with 60-120
seats will be needed to replace old equipment, develop
new markets, and allow carriers to grow by smaller seat
Regional jets 1,920
market outlook 2010-29
Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Seats Units 2020-29 2010-29
91-120 1,705 2,180
Total 2,895 3,980
Embraer commercial-jet delivery
Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes
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