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solid growth in Asia, with China as the main driver
of that growth.
According to the Asian Business Aviation
Association (AsBAA), there has been a 30 percent
increase in business jet charter revenue among
the group's members compared with 2009. The
association concedes that that improvement comes
from a low base, but says that the gure is encouraging
Bombardier, too, sees good reason for optimism in
Asian markets, especially in China and India.
"China's performance during the last recession was
exceptional," the manufacturer says, with the country
maintaining 8.7 percent growth in its GDP in 2009,
despite the economic di culties faced by its trade
partners. According to an HSBC forecast from April
this year, the country should continue to lead world
growth in 2010, with its economy growing more
than 10 percent.
By 2023, China will be the world's largest economy,
according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Up to now, the growth of business aviation
in China has been hampered by various factors,
including airspace access restrictions, high import
taxes on foreign-made aircra , a shortage of small
airports and high operating costs. Today, China
has only about 110 business jets for a population of
1.3 billion, compared with North America's eet of
" e strong commitment made by the Chinese
government to build new infrastructure and recent
improvements to ight-planning regulation bring
hope that private aviation could blossom in China
over the next 10 years," Bombardier says.
e Canadian maker of Challenger, Learjet and
Global business jets says it expects business-jet
demand to rise as the country's barriers fall. Over
the next 10 years, Bombardier predicts the country's
aircra eet will grow by an annual average of 20
percent to 700 aircra from today's 110.
Like China, India's economy has proven resilient,
growing by 6.8 percent last year, compared with an
average growth rate over the past seven years of 8.2
percent. Growth should recover to about 8 percent
this year, according to IHS Global Insight.
India, too, has a relatively small current eet of
125 business aircra , although Bombardier predicts
sales in the country will accelerate as the economy
continues to expand and more wealth is generated.
"Currently, India's business aviation sector is not
living up to its full potential due to a lack of aviation
infrastructure, stringent government regulations,
long procedures for aircra imports and strict bank
regulations," Bombardier says. e manufacturer
predicts annual growth in eet size of about 13
percent over the next decade, expanding to 440
aircra by 2019.
Bombardier's outlook for the rest of Asia and
Oceania is equally optimistic, with a prediction of 9
percent annual average growth in the region's business
aircra eet, from 320 units today to 780 by 2019.
"Asia's share of the world's economy is growing
rapidly," Bombardier says. "South-East Asian
countries have been on a rapid industrialisation path.
During the past 10 years, this region has grown at an
average of 4.1 percent per year."
According to IHS Global Insight, South-East
Asia will see 5.4 percent economic growth this year,
settling to an annual average of 5 percent over the
"Japan's recovery appears more fragile, bringing back
memories of the 'lost decade' when the economy
showed signs of recovery only to falter again," the
Canadian manufacturer says, pointing to record
unemployment, falling wages and a drop in business
investment. Japan's economy is expected to expand
by 1.8 percent this year, with average growth of 1.4
percent from 2010-2019.
By contrast, South Korea has managed to keep
productivity and exports high during the downturn,
and will probably see GDP growth of 3.8 percent this
year, averaging at 3.7 percent up to 2019.
Asia and Oceania will take delivery of about 500
new business aircra over the ten years up to 2019.
With the Asia-Paci c region overall showing so
much promise, manufacturers have been increasing
investment there. Gulfstream, for instance, doubled
its parts and materials inventory in Asia in 2009,
basing more than US$48 million worth of inventory
in Beijing , Hong Kong and Singapore, as well as
setting up a maintenance support team in the Chinese
capital and placing new personnel in the region.
Gulfstream has more than tripled the number of
its aircra in ser vice in the region from 37 in 2005 to
84 in 2008 and 113 by the end of 2009. e company
this year also delivered its rst G450 aircra to China's
Mingshen Financial Leasing and says it plans to keep
working with the lessor.
In July, Gulfstream said it had placed the rst
ultra-long range G550 jet on the Indian civil registry,
a er winning type certi cation from the Directorate
General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). e manufacturer
has also obtained DGCA certi cation for its GIII,
GIV, GV, G100, G200, G450 and G500 models.
"Over a quarter century, Gulfstream has earned
a reputation as the preferred provider of private jets
to many of the country's business leaders," said Jason
Akovenko, the company's regional vice-president for
the Asia-Paci c region. " e Indian aviation industry
is strong and vibrant and we are excited about the
In the past few years, Gulfstream says it has seen
its sales shi from 60 percent North American to 60
percent international, with much of the shi towards
"When we look at the market of India, we see
considerable upward potential," Akovenko said.
Bombardier's global outlook remains optimistic
overall. "Although cancellations outnumbered
industry orders for 2009, we do not expect this
scenario to repeat in 2010," the manufacturer says.
"Although demand has been slow to recover
since the beginning of 2010, we expect the industry
order intake to return to positive territory this year,"
Bombardier continues. " is burgeoning growth will
accelerate as we progress into the decade. Within the
next three years, order intake should return to the
level reached during the last peak".|
e company predicts a global need to 10,500
new business aircra in the light to large categories,
generating US$254 billion in total revenue over
2010-2019. at's an increase of some 62 percent in
aircra numbers compared with the 6,500 delivered
in 2000-2009, which were valued at US$127
During 2020-2029, the manufacturer foresees a
further surge in demand, with deliveries totalling
15,500 aircraft, generating US$407 billion in
Gulfstream has more than tripled the number of its aircraft in Asia since 2005.
30 AsianAviation | OCTOBER 2010
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