Home' Asian Aviation : AAV March 2011. Contents Manufacturers
Ian Goold / London
Asia-Pacific dominates 20-year outlook
By the end of the next decade, Asia-
Paci c airlines -- including those in
China and India -- will be carrying
about a third of the world's passenger
tra c, making the region the world's
largest aviation market, according to
Chris Emerson, Airbus's head of product strateg y and
By comparison, the region today accounts
for about 27 percent of global traffic, says the
manufacturer's Chief Operating O cer (Customers)
John Leahy. " at's about the same as either Europe
or the USA, which in 2029 will carry 25 percent and
20 percent, respectively," he adds.
In the next few years, emerging economies --
especially China -- are seen as leading the world's
recovery from economic recession.
"Seven out of the top 20 fastest-growing [passenger
tra c] ows connect China to the rest of the world,"
say Airbus analysts. "Domestic Indian tra c growth
[at 9.2 percent per year] is the fastest of any major
market and the third-fastest growth overall."
The only faster-expanding passenger traffic
markets are routes between the Middle East and
South America, and between North Africa and
e gures are included in the latest Airbus 20-
year global market forecast (GMF), which covers
the period 2010-29. In that time, some 25,850
new passenger and freighter aircraft, valued at
US$3.2 trillion, will be needed to satisfy perceived
"This demand is primarily driven by the
replacement of aircra for newer, more e cient
models in mature markets, dynamic growth in new,
emerging markets, low-cost carriers (particularly in
Asia), further market liberalisation (or deregulation),
and capacity growth on existing routes."
Compared with the previous Airbus document,
covering 2009-28, the new forecast predicts delivery
of a further 890 new passenger aircra , re ecting
a slightly higher, 4.8 percent annual growth rate
compared with the 4.7 percent yearly trend foreseen
in 2009. e additional new machines will mainly be
in the single-aisle sector, in which the Airbus A320
series competes against the Boeing 737 family (and
which Bombardier plans to enter with its110- to
Of the predicted additional passenger and
freighter aircra needed, all but 870 will be passenger
models worth a projected US$2.9 trillion. Of these
24,980 passenger aircra , Airbus says 10,000 will be
replacements for older, less e cient aircra , while the
rest will be required to provide extra capacity.
"Taking into account today's passenger eet of
over 14,000 aircra , the world passenger eet will
rise to some 29,000 aircra by 2029," according to
"The recovery is stronger than predicted and
[confirms] both the resilience of the sector to
downturns and that people want and need to y," says
Leahy. " e single-aisle sector is particularly strong."
Looking more closely at passenger-tra c volume,
Airbus reports that domestic US ights lead with
an 11.3 percent market share, followed by domestic
China (8.4 percent), intra-European traffic (7.2
percent), and then US to western European
destinations (5.9 percent).
As the maker of the 525-seat A380, the world's
largest airliner, the European manufacturer never
misses an opportunity to argue that, on average,
aircraft are getting bigger. It claims airlines are
capitalising on the bene ts of larger aircra to absorb
tra c growth, minimize airport congestion, reduce
costs, and to increase e ciency.
Emerson points out that average size of newly
delivered machines is growing (from an average
179 seats in 2005 to 184 four years later), while
retirements are increasingly involving smaller aircra
(down in capacity from 184 passengers six years ago
to 173 in 2009). And the larger size of new aircra
is not a new phenomenon: Airbus says it has tracked
the trend for more than 20 years.
e air-cargo business has been recovering from
recession even faster than the passenger side, at a 5.9
percent annual growth rate.
For 2010, freight traffic is expected to have
rebounded "at closer to 18 percent, before levelling
o at more typical growth levels by the end of 2011,"
says Emerson. "Combined with eet renewal, this
translates to a [20-year] demand for around 2,980
freighters. While some 870 will be new aircra
valued at US$211 billion, 2,110 will be converted
from passenger aircra ," he adds.
e European manufacturer puts passenger and
freighter demand for very large aircra (VLA) aircra
at 1,740, worth US$570 billion (and representing 18
percent of the total market by value and 7 percent
by units). Of these, about three-quarters (or 1,320
aircra ) will be deployed to connect the increasing
number of what Airbus terms "mega" cities.
Dividing the twin-aisle sector into segments either
side of the 350-seat capacity mark, Emerson says
that 4,330 will be smaller (250- to 349-seats) with
about 1,910 intermediate-sized (350- to 449-seats).
Together, these two subsectors are expected to
account for 42 percent of the market by value and
24 percent by units.
In the single-aisle segment, 17,870 aircra worth
some US$1.274 trillion (40 percent of the market by
value, or 69 percent by unit numbers) are forecast to
be delivered between now and 2029.
" is is an increase over previous forecasts, due
to the accelerating demand for single-aisle aircra ,
particularly in Asia-Paci c, the emergence of low-
cost carriers, and increased route liberalisation,"
concludes Emerson. n
Twin-aisle (250-349 seats)
(350-449 seats) 4,330
Very large aircraft
Airbus comparative 20-year market
*passenger aircraft with at least 100 seats and
freighters of more than ten tons
Airbus maintains that, on average, new airliners are getting bigger.
20 AsianAviation | MARCH 2011
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