Home' Asian Aviation : AAV Dec Jan2011 2012. Contents 34 AsianAviation | DECEMBER 2011 / JANUARY 2012
and tourism, together with a sizeable expatriate
workforce, has promoted the development of intra-
regional markets in the Middle East.
"In 2005, some 230 intra-regional non-stop
city pairs were ser ved primarily by high-capacity
narrowbody and widebody aircra ," the company
says. "As regulatory restrictions ease in the Middle
East, airlines with smaller-capacity aircra will be
well positioned to launch new non-stops in mid-
density markets and building network connections
from hub airports."
Embraer adds that although the current intra-
regional network is more developed than it was ve
years ago, there remains room for improvement in 55
percent of the markets. "More than 70 city pairs do
not have any non-stop air service, and another 140
are ser ved with less than one ight per day."
Looking outside the region, Airbus says that
international travel will be a key driver of tra c
trends in the coming 20 years. e intercontinental
route network will grow rapidly as new origin-
and-destination combinations are introduced and
operations expand, with Middle East international
tra c forecast to grow by 6.4 percent per year
Latin American Traffic
Traffic between Latin America and the Middle
East is forecast to increase by an impressive 19.4
percent over the next ten years. New routes linking
the UAE and Qatar to Brazil were opened during
2008 and 2010, respectively. Accordingly, Airbus
predicts requirements for more long- and medium-
range capacity, resulting in the Middle East eet of
passenger aircra with more than 100 seats more
than doubling by 2030.
"From 1999 to 2008, passengers in Dubai and Abu
Dhabi have increased by more than 300 percent,"
Airbus says. "Both cities o er transiting visitors high-
quality hotels, museums, resorts, and other attractions."
e manufacturer suggests that such developments
provide local tourism and relaxation opportunities
for travellers in transit between connecting ights.
"Dubai has developed a special identity as a nancial
and luxury-tourism centre globally. Abu Dhabi
has developed a plan to create a knowledge-based
economy," the manufacturer says.
Boeing points out that the so -called 'Gulf ree
airlines -- Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Abu Dhabi s
Etihad Airways -- use market strategies based on
sixth-freedom rights that permit operators in one
country to carry passengers or cargo between second
and third states via a scheduled stop in their home
country. "Sixth-freedom privileges have enabled
[them] to take advantage of their central location
to expand their share of tra c between Europe and
Asia," Boeing says.
us, a very large air-travel market does not rely
on originating tra c in home countries that have
relatively small populations. Together, the region s
'big three carriers have more than 500 aircra on
order, of which more than 80 percent are widebodies,
with deliveries stretching all the way out to 2022.
Embraer attributes high traffic growth in the
Middle East -- 18 percent last year -- to "the
emergence of global hubs with high-frequency ights
that connect long-haul east-west passengers". e
Brazilian company expects positive annual growth
of 6.9 percent for the next 20 years as carriers in the
regional add a large number of high-capacity aircra .
Boeing says travel demand in the region is being
stimulated by new and emerging low-cost carriers
(LCCs) that are aiming at the young local population
and the large migrant workforce. "Flying short- and
medium-haul routes within the region and to Africa,
India, and Eastern Europe, the LCCs supply only 4
percent of the region s capacity, yet they account for
more than one-third of [its] backlog of single-aisle
airplanes." e US manufacturer says that the Middle
East accounts for 22 percent of the global large-
airliner market, in addition to its substantial backlog
of such aircra .
Embraer says that in 2010 some 835 aircra were
engaged in scheduled ser vices in the Middle East. e
average age of the 810 jets and 25 turboprops, which
together account for 4.4 percent of the global airline
eet, was nine years, while the region s order backlog
of 730 aircra comprised 725 jets and ve turboprops.
It says the pro le of the Middle East commercial-
aircraft fleet is dominated by 300 single-aisle
narrowbody aircra and 405 twin-aisle wide-body
jets, respectively representing 36 percent and 49
percent of the eet.
Embraer predicts that, by 2030, the region s eet
will number some 2,175 aircra , which by then
will constitute 5.9 percent of the global eet total
(see table). Embraer forecasts 20-year requirements
for 310 new aircra : 65 percent for growth and 35
percent as replacements.
Boeing foresees demand for some 2,520 commercial
aircra from Middle Eastern carriers in the next 20
years to take the eet to about 2,710, while Airbus
predicts a need for 1,921 machines o ering 100 or
more seats, almost trebling the regional eet s size
to 2,260 units. Boeing expects two orders in three
to be driven by capacity expansion, rather than
"As the order books of airlines in the Middle
East continue to swell, it seems that even the most
ambitious of forecasts for the region are insu cient,"
concludes CAPA. "With almost 1,000 aircraft
already on the order books [from] Middle East
carriers, more orders are certain to come as smaller
carriers and LCCs sort out their eet plans over the
next few years."
"While air-transport markets in the rest of the world shrank
during the global economic downturn of 2009, international
air travel continued to grow for Middle East carriers." -- Boeing
Middle East market: new deliveries 2011-30
Bombardier Embraer Superjet
Small twin-aisle 801
Freighters (all sizes) 39
Sources: manufacturers' market forecasts
Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Abu Dhabi s Etihad
together have more than 500 aircraft on order.
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