Home' Asian Aviation : AAV Feb 2012 Contents Andrzej Jeziorski
Although it seemed like Boeing was playing catch-up to
Airbus s re-engined A320neo, which had raked in 1,196 rm
orders by the end of 2011, Boeing s 737 MAX has stirred up a
good deal of interest since it was announced in July.
Boeing took 150 orders for its re-engined single-aisle
o ering, but says it expects this year to be as active for the
programme as 2011 was for the A320neo. "I have no doubt
that 2012 will be the Year of the 737 MAX," says Boeing
Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Jim Albaugh.
And so it goes -- much has been said and written in the past
few years about how Airbus and Boeing were facing emerging
competition in the single-aisle segment of the market from
clean-sheet designs from Canadian, Chinese and Russian
manufacturers. But when it came down to it, operators have
rushed to buy upgraded versions of the aircra they know from
the big two manufacturers, while Bombardier s CSeries jetliner,
for example, has to date gathered just 133 orders since 2008.
Richard Aboula a, analyst for the Teal Group, says this
was the theme of the past year: "In 2011 all the emerging
producer hype crumbled like a house of cards, while legacy
players reasserted their dominance."
Aboula a says the CSeries "is being destroyed by legacy
players". Of the 133 CSeries orders on the books, 40 are for
Republic Air ways, which has since ordered 40 A319neos and
40 larger A320neos. Despite the carrier s insistence that its
CSeries order is still intact, Aboula a doubts it: " e real
CSeries total is 93."
" e CSeries is potentially a great plane," he says. "But in
terms of marketing and sales, it s like Bombardier brought a
creme brulee torch to a amethrower ght."
Only the largest manufacturers have the wherewithal to
o er customers their own nancing , residual value guarantees
and large up-front discounts. is places newcomers to the
market at a massive disadvantage -- and while Bombardier is
hardly a newcomer to the industry, the analyst doubts it has
the repower required to match the incentives that the two
majors can o er operators.
He is even more sceptical of Russia s Irkut MS-21
programme to develop a 150-212-seat jetliner, which is
now in the working design phase, and of the Mitsubishi
MRJ, which is to begin ight testing within months. China s
COMAC C919 jetliner won a handful of orders from last
year -- Chinese leasing company ICBC Leasing announced an
order for 45 C919s in October -- but the same manufacturer s
ARJ21 regional "spent 2011 falling apart", Aboula a says.
COMAC would, no doubt, beg to differ, since the
jetliner is just beginning Type Inspection Authorisation
tests as a precursor to being handed over to Chinese aviation
authorities for certi cation. But new orders for the aircra
have not been forthcoming.
"When Bombardier and COMAC signed a second co-
operative agreement [at the Paris air show], it looked like two
drunks holding each other up," Aboula a says. " ere are still
no Chinese CSeries orders, and COMAC shows no sign of
breaking into the world jet market."
Oddly, flying in the face of all this, the non-profit
Conference Board of Canada wrapped up 2011 with a report
on the country s aerospace industry, which concluded that
the sector "is facing growing and erce competition as new
players enter the market. For example, China and India are
building their own aircra , with the strong nancial and
regulatory support of their national governments".
Considering India s 70-100 seat Regional Transport
Aircra is still very much at the concept stage, that particular
programme does not seem like much of a threat.
don't believe the hype
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"In terms of marketing and sales,
it's like Bombardier brought a
creme brulee torch to a flame-
thrower fight." -- Teal Group
analyst Richard Aboulafia
Asian Aviation appoints new Editor
As of the March issue of Asian Aviation, Andrzej
Jeziorski will be stepping back from his role as editor of
the magazine. He will remain an Associate Editor with a
particular focus on the business aviation sector.
Taking over as the new editor of the magazine will be
Colin Baker. A resident of Singapore, Colin has been
covering the aviation industry in various parts of the
world for over a decade. Most recently, he was editor of
Asian Airlines & Airports, and he previously held the
post of European Editor for Airline Business magazine
from 2000 to 2006.
He has worked on a number of aviation industry
publications on a freelance basis, as well as covering
other industries ranging from shipping to commercial
property. Furthermore, he has edited a number of show
dailies in the region, at events such as the Seoul Air Show
and the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace
Exhibition (LIMA) in Malaysia.
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