Home' Asian Aviation : AAV March 2012 Contents AsianAviation | MARCH 2012 21
-- wealth-creation, increasing penetration in high-
growth economies, globalisation of trade, replacement
demand and market accessibility -- remain solid.
Bombardier s most recent 20-year industry forecast,
released in 2011, predicts 24,000 business-jet
deliveries worldwide with a value of US$626 billion.
In the ten years to 2020, 10,000 deliveries valued at
US$260 billion are predicted.
These figures anticipate a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8 percent in the global eet
of business aircra , expanding from 14,700 aircra in
2010 to about 30,900 by 2030.
Bombardier points out that China has a very low
number of business jets relative to the size of its
economy and is "now entering a high growth-rate
phase for its business jet eet". India and Indonesia
are also key "growth markets", which will account for
a signi cant share of business-jet deliveries in the next
"Business aviation in China is at its very early
stages," Bombardier says. "Over the past years,
significant barriers have prevented the Chinese
business-jet market [from growing ] to its potential.
Restrictive airspace access, high aircra import taxes,
a shortage of airport infrastructure for business
aviation and high user fees are among the factors
which explain why China only hosts an installed
base of some 150 business jets for a population of
However, the number of China s airports is now
expected to grow from 156 in 2009 to 244 by 2020.
is, combined with recent improvements to ight-
planning regulations and airspace liberalisation will
allow private aviation to blossom in China over the
next 20 years.
"Demand for business jets should increase as
barriers progressively come down," Bombardier says.
"Fleet per 100 million population is expected to grow
from 12 to 200 over the next 20 years. e Chinese
business jet eet of 150 in 2010 is predicted to grow
at ... 15 percent over the next 20 years and to account
for 2,470 aircra in 2030."
Over the next 20 years, the manufacturer expects
2,360 new aircra deliveries in China, with 960 up to
2020 and 1,400 in the following ten years.
India s is another economy that proved remarkably
resilient during the global recession. Business aviation
growth has largely been held back there by the lack
of infrastructure, as well as restrictive regulations,
aircraft import taxes and long procedures for
importing aircra .
Over the next 20 years, Bombardier expects the
eet per 100 million population to expand from
12 to 120, with business-jet sales into the market
accelerating as more wealth is created. From 2011
to 2030, the manufacturer expects 1,330 deliveries
in the market, expanding the country s eet from
110 business jets in 2010 to 1,400 by 2030, with an
average eet growth rate of 14 percent.
e company treats the Asia-Paci c region outside
of China as three separate markets -- Emerging Asia,
Japan and Oceania. Emerging Asian countries such as
Singapore, Malaysia, ailand and Indonesia are on a
path of rapid industrialisation, growing at an annual
average 4.7 percent and bene tting from increasing
trade with China.
Japan s situation is more fragile, with the market
having been hurt by natural disasters and economic
growth slowing from 4 percent in 2010 to 1.2 percent
in 2011. While Oceania is a typical maturing market
for business aviation, Japan and Emerging Asia are
For the Asia-Paci c region overall, the Canadian
manufacturer predicts that eet per 100 million
population will increase from 34 to more than 100
between 2011 and 2030.
"Despite hurdles such as the high handling costs
across the region s airports, the Asia-Paci c region s
current business jet eet of 350 aircra is expected
to grow at a CAGR of 6 percent over the next 20
years, and to account for 1,145 aircra in 2030,"
Bombardier s latest move to increase its presence
in the region and tap this anticipated growth was the
announcement in mid-February that it would open
a full-scale, company-owned and operated service
centre in Singapore in 2013.
" e new ser vice centre will form the cornerstone
of Bombardier s comprehensive customer ser vices
o ering in the Asia-Paci c region and ensure that
Bombardier Business Aircra customers have even
broader access to Original Equipment Manufacturer
(OEM)-backed ser vice," the company said.
e new facility will be the second ser vice centre
operated by Bombardier outside of North America,
bringing the total number to ten worldwide. e
manufacturer says the facility will be capable of
performing a range of light- to heavy-maintenance
jobs on all the company s Learjet, Challenger and
Global aircra models.
Bombardier s Singapore Regional Support O ce
(RSO), opened in late 2011, will work together
with the new ser vice centre, as well as the company s
current Singapore parts depot. Together with other
facilities based in the region, Bombardier plans to
"Demand for business jets should increase as barriers progressively
come down." -- Bombardier
Bombardier says that China is "now entering a high growth-rate phase for its business jet fleet".
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